UK: Weekly FX Market Update 9 March
GBP
GBPUSD remains under pressure as the Iran war continues.
With oil trading above $100, the economy may slow down.
Bloomberg analysts say the likelihood of a UK rate cut has fallen sharply, from an 85% chance in March to zero by the end of 2026.
UK GDP on Friday will give us an update on the UK economy’s behaviour before the oil shock.
EUR
The Eurozone economy is an importer of energy, so with the oil price soaring higher, the Euro has suffered.
As the Iran war continues, will EURUSD weakness do the same?
An interest rate hike is now expected from the European Central Bank by July.
USD
The USD continues to strengthen, possibly as a safe haven, though US Treasuries aren’t benefiting in the same manner.
The US economy, after last Friday’s employment report, has now seen a net job loss since the introduction of IEEPA tariffs on 2nd April 2025.
A combination of an expected rise in inflation and the slowing labour market sees the chances of a US rate cut recede.
With so much chaos in the market, can the USD maintain its appeal?
Mon Mar 9
09:30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence
Tue Mar 10
12:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor
Wed Mar 11
07:00 EUR German Final CPI
09:30 GBP Consumer Inflation Expectations
12:30 USD CPI
Thu Mar 12
12:30 USD Unemployment Claims/Building Permits/Trade Balance
Fri Mar 13
07:00 GBP GDP/Construction output/Goods Trade Balance
12:30 CAD Employment Report
12:30 USD Core PCE Index/Prelim GDP/Durable Goods
14:00 USD JOLTS Job Openings/Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
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