UK: Weekly FX Market Update 30 March

GBP

• The GBPUSD slid lower over the week as the US-Iran conflict continued.

• UK PMI readings taken since the start of the conflict show a dual shock to both growth and prices.

• The Swaps market is currently pricing in three hike rates during 2026; however, MPC member Taylor sees a ‘high bar’ to raising the key interest rate.

EUR

• ECB president Lagarde anchors inflation expectations by saying she won’t be ‘paralyzed by hesitation’ on Iran.

• ECB’s Wunch says rate hike likely if the Iran war isn’t over by June.

• Meanwhile, the war continues, and the EURUSD remains under pressure.

USD

• According to S&P Global US PMI price data points to consumer price inflation accelerating to around 4%. The OECD forecasts 4.2%.

• The president delays attacks on Iranian electricity production to possibly April 6th.

• What will the Non-Farm Payrolls for March show about the US labour market on Friday?

• Can the USD continue to be supported with a possible dose of stagflation looming?

Mon Mar 30

07:00 EUR German Prelim CPI

15:30 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Tue Mar 31

00:30 JPY Tokyo Core CPI

07:00 GBP Current Account/Final GDP

10:00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate

13:30 CAD GDP

15:00 USD JOLTS Job Openings/Consumer Confidence

17:00 USD FOMC Goolsbee Speaks

Wed Apr 1

10:00 EUR Unemployment Rate

13:15 USD ADP Non-Farm employment Change

13:30 USD Retail Sales

15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

Thu Apr 2

13:30 USD Unemployment Claims/Trade Balance

Fri Apr 3

All Day GBP/EUR/CAD Bank Holiday

13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings/Non-Farm Employment Change/Unemployment Rate

15:00 USD ISM Services PMI