UK: Weekly FX Market Update 15 June

GBP

• Possibly due to a combination of general US Dollar strength and political concerns in the UK, GBPUSD remained under pressure last week.

• UK CPI is released on Wednesday, and the Bank of England sets rates on Thursday, with Bloomberg analysts expecting a hold on interest rates at 3.75%.

• Friday could be the day for fireworks. Will Andy Burnham become an MP and light the leadership challenge blue touch paper?

EUR

• The European Central Bank (ECB) last week increased its inflation expectations for 2026 whilst downgrading its growth forecasts.

• This implication of possible stagflation from the ECB encouraged more EURUSD weakness.

• Will the Eurozone Final CPI encourage further Euro weakness on Wednesday?

USD

• President Trump hails an agreement on a memorandum of understanding, extending the Iran ceasefire for sixty days.

• The agreement is due to be signed on Friday, June 19th, although details of the agreement have not been published.

• If the Straits of Hormuz is reopened, the Iran war can be over. Does the agreement mean the end of safe-haven US Dollar buying and the start of a risk-on period for markets?

• New Fed Chair Warsh heads his first FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Will he usher in a period of change or stability for the Fed, and how will investors react?

Mon Jun 15

08:15 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks

14:15 USD Capacity Utilization/Industrial Production

Tue Jun 16

05:00 JPY Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Decision

05:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

06:30 JPY BoJ Press Conference

10:00 EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment

13:30 USD Housing Starts

Wed Jun 17

07:00 GBP CPI

10:00 EUR Final CPI

13:30 USD Retail Sales

19:00 USD Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision/Economic Projections/Statement

19:30 USD Fed Press Conference

Thu Jun 18

All Day Makerfield By-Election

07:00 GBP Claimant Count Change/Average Earnings Index/Unemployment Rate

08:30 CHF Swiss National Bank (SNB) Interest Rate Decision

09:00 CHF SNB Press Conference

12:00 GBP Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision

13:30 USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index/Unemployment Claims

Fri Jun 19

05:00 GBP Makerfield By-Election Results

07:00 GBP Retail Sales/Public Sector Net Borrowing