UK: Weekly FX Market Update 29 June

GBP

• Despite Prime Minister Starmer resigning last week, GBPUSD remained quietly supported.

• Without a challenger, Andy Burnham can be coronated Prime Minister on July 20th.

• With the Iran war possibly ending and the oil price slumping, Burnham may inherit an improving economy, but what will his policies be?

EUR

• ECB President Lagarde put the skids under the Euro last week, stating she sees ‘no need for a more forceful response’ by the ECB to the Iran war.

• Soft PMI data, coupled with some month-end investor selling, resulted in a weakened EURUSD.

• Will Eurozone Flash CPI on Wednesday show signs of slowing and weaken EURUSD further?

USD

• Fed Chair Warsh speaks on Wednesday. Will the hawkish rhetoric continue?

• The US employment report is released this Thursday rather than Friday. Can it show continued strength?

• Is the current US$ strength a short-term phenomenon or a trend in the making?

Mon Jun 29

18:30 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Tue Jun 30

07:00 GBP Final GDP

07:00 EUR German Prelim CPI

13:30 CAD GDP

15:00 USD Consumer Confidence

Wed Jul 1

10:00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate

13:15 USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

14:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks

14:00 GBP Bank of England Governor Bailey Speaks

14:00 USD Fed Chair Warsh Speaks

15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

15:30 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Thu Jul 2

07:30 CHF CPI

10:00 EUR Unemployment Rate

13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings/Non-Farm Payrolls/Unemployment Rate

Fri Jul 3

All Day US Holiday

09:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks

09:00 EUR Final Services PMI

09:30 GBP Final Services PMI

16:00 GBP Bank of England Governor Bailey Speaks