UK: Weekly FX Market Update 21 September
GBP
The dovish Bank of England diverges from the hawkish Federal Reserve and ECB, saying there is “little evidence of material second-round effects”.
Despite this, Bloomberg analysts now give a 95% chance of a UK rate hike in November.
Will the market start to price in investor concerns over the October 28th budget and push the pound lower?
EUR
EURUSD falls quickly after the Federal Reserve hikes US rates.
ECB’s Makhlouf said, “every meeting is live” (to hike rates). While ECB’s Rehn noted no second-round inflation effects so far.
What will the Eurozone Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI released on Wednesday show for the future growth of the Eurozone economy?
USD
Fed Chair Warsh and the FOMC turned fully hawkish last week. Hiking rates by 0.25% and signalling one more hike in 2026.
The US$ surges higher. But will US rates rise faster and higher than Eurozone & UK rates?
Warsh emerges as a credible Fed Chair. Ignoring Trump’s calls for a rate cut.
Mon Sep 21
11:30 USD FOMC Goolsbee speaks
Tue Sep 22
07:00 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing
15;05 USD FOMC Williams
Wed Sep 23
All Day Premier Xi State visit to US
09:00 EUR Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI
09:30 GBP Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI
14:45 USD Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI
Thu Sep 24
08:30 CHF Swiss National Bank Interest Rate
09:00 CHF SNB Press Conference
09:00 EUR IFO Business Climate
09:10 USD FOMC Williams Speaks
10:00 GBP BoE Dhingra Speaks
13:30 USD Unemployment Claims
13:50 USD FOMC Hammack Speaks
14:30 GBP MPC Breeden Speaks
15:00 GBP MPC Lombardelli Speaks
15:10 USD FOMC Paulson Speaks
Fri Sep 25
10:15 USD FOMC Williams Speaks
13:30 USD Durable Goods
15:00 USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment/Inflation Expectations
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