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July 20, 2026Cross-Border
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UK: Weekly FX Market Update 20 July

Corpay

GBP

  • Andy Burnham becomes the UK PM today, Monday, June 20th. Who will be in his Cabinet and will investors like or loathe his Chancellor & early policy decisions?

  • UK CPI is released on Wednesday. Will it push lower like US CPI or stay stubbornly high giving the Bank of England little room for manoeuvre on interest rates?

  • Flash PMI data is released on Friday. GBPUSD has rallied 2.5% since Starmer resigned as PM. Will this important forward-looking release suggest that the markets think there is more good news to follow for the UK economy?

EUR

  • EURUSD appears to be a haven of calm, even with the Ukraine & Iran wars continuing.

  • The European Central Bank (ECB) sets rates this Thursday. Will it be a hold on interest rates, or will the ECB show concern over the Iran war escalation & turn hawkish?

  • Can the combination of Thursday’s ECB meeting & Friday’s Flash PMI data give EURUSD the motivation to move?

USD

  • The US & Iran are stepping up attacks on each other, with investors monitoring the Straits of Hormuz shipping data to try and gauge how high oil, inflation & US interest rates can push.

  • US equity markets are starting to creak. The Semiconductor index is now in a bear market & the Space X IPO is nearly 10% below its issue price.

  • Last week’s US CPI and PPI data releases were both softer than expected, whilst Fed Chair Warsh stressed to congress that the Federal Reserve still has continued commitment to price stability.

  • With oil back at $90, markets are starting to price in a US rate hike by October. Is it starting to go wrong for the US economy & the US Dollar?

Mon Jul 20

All Day Japan Holiday

All Day UK New PM Burnham

13:30 CAD CPI

Tue Jul 21

07:00 GBP Claimant Count Change/Average Earnings

10:00 ZEW Economic Sentiment

12:30 EUR German Bundesbank President Nagel Speaks

Wed Jul 22

07:00 GBP CPI

15:30 USD Oil Inventories

Thu Jul 23

02:30 AUD Employment Data

13:15 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision/Statement

13:30 USD Unemployment Claims

13:45 EUR ECB Press Conference

Fri Jul 24

07:00 GBP Retail Sales

09:00 EUR Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI

09:30 GBP Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI

14:45 USD Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI

About the author

Trevor Charsley

Trevor Charsley

Senior Market Strategist

Trevor has over 25 years' trading and sales experience. He produces regular market and technical analysis as well as help with the structure and management of FX hedging policies. Trevor is often listed among the top "currency forecaster on Bloomberg".