UK: Weekly FX Market Update 2 November 2026

GBP

• Chancellor Healey delivers a ‘plain’ budget and investors appear to like it. Sterling moves steadily higher.

• GBPEUR grinds higher as the French budget situation continues to bubble along. With Germany now experiencing riots, is the unrest spreading?

• The Bank of England is given a 95% chance of hiking rates by 0.25% this Thursday.

EUR

• The ECB holds rates steady but points to a hike in December. EURUSD bounces from its recent lows.

• Will Eurozone CPI due for release on Wednesday show the need for a hike from the ECB?

• Will French government funding continue to unnerve investors & punish the Euro?

USD

• The US Mid-terms are held on Tuesday. Republicans are at risk of losing the House of Representatives and Senate.

• What will President Trump do if the results swing badly against the GOP?

• While US GDP steps up again showing growth of 3.4% QoQ in Q3 2026, will US politics knock the US Dollar out of its stride?

Mon Nov 2

15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

Tues Nov 3

ALL Day US Congressional Elections

03:30 AUD Reserve Bank Australia Interest Rate Decision

07:30 CHF CPI

Wed Nov 4

10:00 EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate

15:00 USD ISM Services PMI

Thu Nov 5

12:00 GBP Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

13:30 Unemployment Claims

Fri Nov 6

0:30 USD FOMC Williams Speaks

13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings/Non-Farm Payroll Change/Unemployment Rate

14:10 USD FOMC Musalem Speaks

15:00 USD Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment/Inflation Expectations