UK: Weekly FX Market Update 2 December 2024
GBP
GBPUSD bounced higher last week, despite US GDP data continuing to outperform.
President Trump threatened tariffs on imports, but didn’t mention the UK, so the pound benefited from that announcement.
Bank of England monetary policy committee member Greene speaks on Thursday. Will she be her usual hawk, strengthening the pound?
EUR
France continues to wrangle over its budget deficit. However, the fallout isn’t spreading to the wider eurozone – yet.
Eurozone leaders want to buy more goods from the US, helping the US trade deficit and US manufacturing. Will this plan work to help avoid the imposition of US tariffs?
The Eurozone revised GDP is released on Friday, with the question on everyone’s minds seemingly being ‘just how weak is the Eurozone economy?’
USD
Without even being in office, Trump gains immigration concessions from Mexico and Canada. That said, will it be enough to avoid tariffs?
If tariffs are not introduced across the board from day one, and there is not a mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, will inflation continue to decline, and could the US Dollar take a step back?
Non-Farm Payroll data will be released on Friday, which may be the economic highlight of the week.
Main events for this week:
Mon Dec 2
10:00 EUR Unemployment Rate
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
20:15 USD FOMC Waller Speaks
Tues Dec 3
07:30 CHF CPI
15:00 USD JOLTS Openings
17:35 USD FOMC Kugler Speaks
20:45 USD FOMC Goolsbee Speaks
Wed Dec 4
00:30 AUD GDP
09:00 EUR Final Services PMI
09:30 GBP Final Services PMI
13:45 USD FOMC Musalem Speaks
15:00 USD ISM Services PMI
18:45 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Thu Dec 5
13:30 USD Unemployment Claims
17:00 GBP MPC Greene Speaks
Fri Dec 6
10:00 EUR Revised GDP QoQ
13:30 USD Non-Farm Payrolls/Average Hourly Earnings/Unemployment Rate
14:15 USD FOMC Bowman Speaks
15:00 USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment/Inflation Expectations
15:30 USD FOMC Goolsbee Speaks
17:00 USD FOMC Hammack Speaks
18:00 USD FOMC Daly Speaks
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