UK: Weekly FX Market Update 14 September

GBP

• PM Burnham says, ‘National Security will not come at the expense of social security’. Investors consider whether welfare and state spending will not be cut, while taxes could be hiked instead.

• Despite a pleasing July GDP growth of 0.4%, Sterling can’t rally.

• Will the budget show that the Labour Party has swapped Starmer and Reeves for the same policies from Burnham and Healey?

EUR

• ECB President Lagarde hikes rates to 2.5% and says that risks to the inflation outlook are ‘to the upside’.

• Bloomberg analysts now give a 50% chance of a rate hike in October.

• But the Euro eases lower on the ECB rate hike as the market looks to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve rate decision.

USD

• US CPI points to higher inflation to come for the US as diesel hits $6 per gallon in the US for the first time.

• Iran steps up hostilities against the US and the Houthis seize a Red Sea port, with a major Saudi pipeline shut down as well. Restricting oil supply again.

• Will the Federal Reserve hike rates on Wednesday? If they don’t, with the mid-term elections in October, they may not hike in 2026.

Mon Sep 14

13:30 CAD CPI

Tue Sep 15

07:00 GBP Claimant Count Change/Average Earnings/Unemployment Rate

10:00 EUR Trade Balance/ZEW Economic Sentiment

Wed Sep 16

07:00 GBP CPI

10:00 EUR Industrial Production

13:30 USD Retail Sales

19:00 USD Federal Funds Rate/Economic Projections/Statement

19:30 USD FOMC Press Conference

Thu Sep 17

08:00 CHF Economic Forecasts

12:00 GBP Bank of England Interest Rate Decision/Monetary Policy Summary/MPC Vote

13:30 USD Unemployment Claims

Fri Sep 18

05:00 JPY Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Decision/Statement

05:30 JPY BoJ Press Conference

07:00 GBP Retail Sales

09:00 EUR Current Account

14:15 USD Industrial Production

14:30 FOMC Bowman Speaks