UK: Weekly FX Market Update 13 April
GBP
With the Iran war ceasefire holding, the dollar slips lower. Could we have seen the peak of USD safe-haven buying and will GBPUSD now recover?
Citigroup previously said that April could see the pound under pressure, especially against the euro, as the May UK by-elections loom. Will this be the case?
Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks on Tuesday and Wednesday. What can he tell investors about the path for UK interest rates?
EUR
Despite possibly facing a nasty bout of stagflation, EURUSD rose nearly 2% last week.
Will the Hungarian election result be seen as a positive for the Single currency?
Are the media reports that outline a possible peace deal between Ukraine and Russia worth considering?
USD
The US and Iran can’t agree on a peace deal, with the current cease-fire due to end on April 22nd.
Trump’s next step is to impose a shipping blockade. Will the US be able to reopen the Straits of Hormuz to all shipping? Or will Iran end up in control?
Trump wants a $1.2 trillion defence spending increase. The US budget is US$ 39 trillion, with no clear plan to control it. Could the bond vigilantes be about to erupt as US inflation jumps 0.9% in March because of the Iran conflict?
Mon Apr 13
All Day IMF Meetings
Tue Apr 14
All Day IMF Meetings
12:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor
09:50 GBP MPC Mann Speaks
13:30 USD PPI
15:00 GBP MPC Greene Speaks
17:05 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
17:15 USD FOMC Barr Speaks
18:00 USD Various FOMC Speakers
22:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Wed Apr 15
All Day IMF Meetings
10:00 EUR Industrial Production
13:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index/FOMC Barr Speaks
16:50 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
19:00 USD BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
20:30 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Thu Apr 16
All Day IMF Meetings
07:00 GBP GDP/Goods Trade Balance/Industrial & Manufacturing Production
10:00 EUR Final CPI
13:30 USD Unemployment claims
13:35 USD FOMC Williams Speaks
14:15 USD Capacity Utilization/Industrial Production
16:40 GBP MPC Taylor Speaks
Fri Apr 17
All Day IMF Meetings
09:00 EUR Current Account
10:00 EUR Trade Balance
16:30 USD FOMC Daly Speaks
17:15 USD FOMC Barkin Speaks
19:00 USD FOMC Waller Speaks
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