UK: Weekly FX Market Update 1 June

GBP

• GBPUSD was motivated by both US data and US/Iran developments last week. This week, could a memorandum of understanding be agreed between the US and Iran? Preliminary GDP was softer than expected, keeping the pound in recent ranges.

• What clues will Bank of England Governor Bailey give on monetary policy? He speaks three times this week.

• The US employment report is released on Friday. Could it move GBPUSD again?

EUR

• ECB’s De Guindos spoke about Eurozone weakening growth last week.

• Meanwhile, the ECB meeting minutes noted that second round inflation effects are ‘inevitable’.

• Eurozone revised GDP is released on Friday. Will we see signs of the economic weakness that De Guindos referred to?

USD

• A peace proposal was reportedly agreed and sent to president Trump for consideration at the end of last week.

• So far, we don’t appear to have a decision from the president.

• US Non-Farm Payrolls are released on Friday. Can they continue recent strength and encourage US Dollar strength again?

Mon Jun 1

01:30 USD FOMC Powell Speaks

10:00 EUR Unemployment Rate

15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

Tue Jun 2

10:00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate

13:30 USD FOMC Hammack Speaks

15:00 GBP BoE Bailey Speaks (House of Lords)

15:00 USD Job Openings

16:00 GBP MPC Greene Speaks

Wed Jun 3

09:30 JPY BoJ Gov Ueda Speaks

13:15 USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

14:00 USD US Treasury Secretary Bessent Speaks

15:00 USD ISM Services PMI

Thu Jun 4

09:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks

09:30 GBP Construction PMI

10:00 EUR Retail Sales

13:30 USD Unemployment Claims

16:40 GBP BoE Bailey Speaks

18:10 USD FOMC Daly Speaks

Fri Jun 5

10:00 EUR Revised GDP

13:30 CAD Employment Data

13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings/Non-Farm Employment Change/Unemployment Rate

14:40 GBP MPC Dhingra Speaks

19:00 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks