UK: Weekly FX Market Update 06 October

GBP

• As the US Dollar has a tough week, GBPUSD squeezes higher.

• Will the market be positive on sterling ahead of potential tax hikes in next month’s budget?

• Will Chancellor Reeves follow Morgan Stanley’s blueprint by targeting pension savings and reforming existing taxes to fill the possible £45 billion budget deficit?

EUR

• Yearly Eurozone CPI creeps higher to 2.3%, potentially supporting the single currency.

• As Russia appears to turn its focus towards European support for Ukraine, markets consider if this could be bullish for the Euro.

• ECB President Lagarde speaks twice this week. Will she maintain her positive outlook on the Euro?

USD

• The US government is shutdown and important US government data is not published.

• How long will the Fed, as well as investors, be left trying to ‘navigate blind’?

• Can confidence in the US administration and currency continue to drain away as confusion and upheaval seem to reign in the dollar?

Main events for this week:

US govt data may be affected by the shutdown. Events are subject to delay, revision or cancellation

Mon Oct 6

09:30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence

18:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks

18:30 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

Tue Oct 7

13:30 USD Trade Balance

15:00 USD FOMC Bostic Speaks

16:30 USD FOMC Kashkari Speaks

17:10 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Wed Oct 8

02:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement

05:00 JPY BoJ Gov Ueda Speaks

14:40 USD FOMC Musalem Speaks

16:00 GBP MPC Pill Speaks

17:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks

19;00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

Thu Oct 9

13:30 USD Unemployment Claims/Fed Chair Powell Speaks

18:00 USD FOMC Barr Speaks

Fri Oct 10

13:30 USD Non-Farm Payrolls/Unemployment Rate/Average Hourly Earnings

15:00 USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment/Inflation Expectations