UK: Weekly FX Market Update 7 July 2025
GBP
PM Starmer's options for Chancellor are between an individual who is clearly feeling the pressure (personal or public) and an unknown who may revert to Labours past fiscal irresponsibility. Will the pound suffer?
Recent UK data has been disappointing. Will UK GDP disappoint again this Friday?
EUR
ECB’s De Guindos had stated that they are happy with the EURUSD pairing at 1.2000 but that things could get ‘complicated’ above that level.
Will these sentiments slow down the EURUSD strength we have seen for the past six months?
USD
This could be a pivotal time for the dollar. With the tax bill passed into law, a calm bond market and tariffs now broadly agreed, could we be in for a period of less volatility and USD strength?
President Trump remains upset with Fed Chair Powell, wanting him to cut rates and calling for him to resign immediately.
Powell points out that rates would have been cut already if tariffs had not been imposed, and that he will wait until the effects of the tariffs are evident before changing policy. Could this situation undermine the dollar further?
Main events for this week:
Mon Jul 7
09:30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence
Tue Jul 8
05:30 AUD Cash Rate/Statement
06:30 AUD Reserve Bank Australia Press Conference
Wed Jul 9
03:00 NZD Cash Rate/Statement
19:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu Jul 10
13:30 USD Unemployment Claims
19:30 USD FOMC Daly Speaks
Fri Jul 11
07:00 GBP GDP/Goods Trade Balance/Industrial Production
13:30 CAD Employment Data
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