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June 30, 2025Cross-Border
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UK: Weekly FX Market Update 30 June 2025

GBP

  • Despite UK economic worries, investors seem happy to buy GBPUSD.

  • Last week it was possibly propelled higher by US Dollar weakness rather than Sterling strength.

  • However, could we see Sterling weakness now following last week’s U-turn on benefits policy, which may possibly damage the government’s credibility with investors?

EUR

  • EURUSD continued higher off the back of USD weakness.

  • German IFO Business Climate data was positive last Tuesday, following in the footsteps of excellent ZEW economic sentiment the week before. Could the Eurozone be due to grow as the surveys suggest?

  • Will German preliminary CPI on Monday indicate just how close the ECB is to ending its rate-cutting cycle?

USD

  • Investors were given reason to sell the dollar last week as the Israel/Iran conflict ended and a reason for safe-haven USD buying was removed.

  • President Trump harangued Fed Chair Powell over high interest rates, explaining how it’s costing the country $800 billion on their borrowings. Will Trump look to remove Powell early? Will the pressure Trump is applying result in interest rate cuts?

  • Treasury Secretary Bessent says that trade talks could continue until September, whilst President Trump’s July 4th deadline for the tax bill could also be missed. Canada levied a tech tax on overseas tech firms only to scrap it after Trump stopped trade talks. Will the market volatility continue in a public holiday-shortened week with Non-Farm Payrolls released on Thursday?

Main events for this week:

Mon Jun 30

07:00 GBP Final GDP

07:30 EUR German Prelim CPI

15:00 USD FOMC Bostic Speaks

18:30 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Tue Jul 1

10:00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate

14:30 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks

14:30 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

14:30 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks

15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

Wed Jul 2

13:15 USD ADP Non-Fam Employment Change

15:15 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Thu Jul 3

13:30 USD Non-Farm Payrolls/Unemployment Rate/Average Hourly Earnings

15:00 USD ISM Services PMI

Fri Jul 4

All Day US Holiday

09:30 Construction PMI

About the author

Trevor Charsley

Trevor Charsley

Senior Market Strategist

Trevor has over 25 years' trading and sales experience. He produces regular market and technical analysis as well as help with the structure and management of FX hedging policies. Trevor is often listed among the top "currency forecaster on Bloomberg".