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UK: Weekly FX Market Update 3 April

CalendarApril 3, 2023
  • Bank of England (BoE) Governor Bailey announces that the UK banking sector is well positioned to surmount any global banking worries.

  • With UK inflation at 10.4% can the BoE really be at the end of its rate hike cycle?

  • We have a Bank Holiday shortened week, with the US announcing jobs data when the UK is on holiday. Could this induce a volatile market?

  • Eurozone Core CPI was firm again last week, rising by 5.7%, a new record for the Eurozone. Does this news keep the ECB on course to hike again in early May?

  • ECB’s Muller stated that the ECB has ‘room to raise rates’ – a reason for further Euro bullishness?

  • The collapse of Credit Suisse was one step removed from the Eurozone. Has confidence in Europe’s banking sector been damaged?

  • EURUSD gained 3% in March. Can this positive sentiment now move into April and see price test resistance at 1.1035?

  • What will Non-Farm Payrolls bring this Friday, in a holiday affected market?

  • Personal Consumption Expenditure remained firm, rising by 4.4% from last year’s data.

  • Fed Vice-Chair Barr managed to calm the equity markets nerves last week with his testimony to Congress, however, the US Dollar has continued to weaken.

  • Has the recent US bank volatility caused a lasting loss of confidence in US banking & could this lead to US$ weakness?

  • Ellen Zenter, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley said, ‘You always have to worry about what evil lurks around the corner’.

Events for the week ahead:

Mon Apr 3

15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

Tue Apr 4

05:30 AUD RBA Cash Rate

10:15 GBP MPC Tenreyro Speaks

17:30 GBP MPC Pill Speaks

Wed Apr 5

03:00 NZD NBNZ Cash Rate

03:30 AUD RBA Lowe Speaks

15:00 USD ISM Services PMI

Thu Apr 6

13:30 CAD Employment Change

Fri Apr 7

All Day UK Bank Holiday

13:30 Average Hourly Earnings/Non-Farm Payrolls/Unemployment Rate


Trevor Charsley

Trevor Charsley

Senior Market Strategist

Trevor has over 25 years' trading and sales experience. He produces regular market and technical analysis as well as help with the structure and management of FX hedging policies. Trevor is often listed among the top "currency forecaster on Bloomberg".