UK: Weekly FX Market Update 28 July 2025
GBP
UK PMI data disappointed last week, suggesting a possible slowdown alongside sticky inflation.
Retail sales also disappointed, indicating that the UK shoppers are saving more of their money.
With the Federal Reserve expected to maintain interest rates and the ECB pointing to no more rate cuts in the short term, will Sterling come under pressure?
EUR
ECB President Lagarde said that the ECB ‘was in a good place’ regarding interest rates.
The EU and US agreed on a Japanese-style deal with US tariffs set at 15%.
Now that the US and Eurozone have avoided a damaging trade war, will this give the Euro another boost?
USD
After visiting the Federal Reserve, President Trump said that firing Powell would not be ‘necessary’ and emphasised there is ‘no tension’ between them.
The Fed sets rates on Wednesday, with the President requesting a rate cut. However, Bloomberg analysts believe there is only a 4% chance of this happening.
Personal Consumption Expenditure is released on Thursday, followed by the important Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.
Main events for this week:
Mon Jul 28
11:00 GBP CBI Realized Sales
Tue Jul 29
15:00 USD JOLTS Job Openings
Wed Jul 30
02:30 AUD CPI
10:00 EUR Flash GDP
13:15 USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
13:30 USD Advance GDP
14:45 CAD BoC Int Rate Decision
15:30 CAD BoC Press Conference
19:00 USD Fed Int Rate Decision
19:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
Thu Jul 31
05:00 JPY BoJ Int rate Decision/Statement
05:30 JPY BoJ Press Conference
13:30 CAD GDP
13:30 USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure
Fri Aug 1
10:00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings/Non-Farm Employment Change/Unemployment Rate
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
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