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May 27, 2025Cross-Border
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UK: Weekly FX Market Update 27 May 2025

GBP

  • A combination of high UK Inflation, a hawkish Bank of England economist and strong UK retail sales data gave GBPUSD a boost to highs not seen since Feb 2022.

  • Will Bank of England Deputy Governor Lombardelli follow last week’s hawkish stance with CPI now at 3.5%?

  • Can the pound keep pushing higher over month end?

EUR

  • As EU officials regarding trade talks say ‘we are still not really getting anywhere’ President Trump recommends a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1st & then delays the move until July 9th.

  • Meanwhile, ECB officials have been generally welcoming to see the recent Euro strength.

  • Q1 German GDP data outperformed, possibly due to advance orders before April 2nd tariffs were levied.

USD

  • With President Trump’s tax bill passing through the House of Representatives, will bond markets become unsettled again as they worry about the ever-growing budget deficit? The President wants to pass his bill into law before July 4th.

  • 30-year Treasury yields are now close to levels seen just before the start of the 2007 crisis.

  • With Moody’s downgrading US debt, US-EU trade talks not being easy and July 8th bringing the end of the reciprocal tariff pause, can the US Dollar regain some composure, or will it all be too much and continue to weaken further?


Main events for this week:

Tue May 27

13:30 USD Durable Goods

15:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence

Wed May 28

03:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

03:10 GBP MPC Lombardelli Speaks

03:10 USD FOMC Waller Speaks

09:00 USD FOMC Kashkari Speaks

19:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

Thu May 29

02:30 AUD CPI

13:30 USD Preliminary GDP/Unemployment Claims

13:30 USD FOMC Barkin Speaks

15:40 USD FOMC Goolsbee Speaks

21:00 USD FOMC Daly Speaks

Fri May 30

07:00 EUR German Preliminary CPI

13:30 USD Core PCE/Goods Trade Balance

13:30 CAD GDP

15:00 USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment/Inflation Expectations

17:20 USD FOMC Bostic Speaks

About the author

Trevor Charsley

Trevor Charsley

Senior Market Strategist

Trevor has over 25 years' trading and sales experience. He produces regular market and technical analysis as well as help with the structure and management of FX hedging policies. Trevor is often listed among the top "currency forecaster on Bloomberg".