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March 17, 2025Cross-Border
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UK: Weekly FX Market Update 17 March 2025

GBP

  • Last week ended on a sour note for the pound, with monthly GDP falling by 0.1% in January. Is PM Starmer too busy with Ukraine and US tariffs to focus on the UK economy?

  • The BoE sets rates on Thursday with market analysts expecting no change from the ‘Old Lady’.

  • If US tariffs and Ukraine peace talks dominate another week, can GBPUSD trade above 1.3000 due to possible further US Dollar weakness?

EUR

  • President Trump is threatening 200% tariffs on European Union (EU) alcohol exports in response to the EU tariffs of 50% on US whisky.

  • European Commission Vice-President Kallas says that they have no interest in a trade war but will defend their interests when needed.

  • German to-be Chancellor Merz has agreed to a deal with the Greens to push through up to Euro 1 trillion worth of defence and infrastructure spending.

USD

  • The S&P 500 is down 8% from its highs and the Nasdaq is over 10% down, with the Financial Times putting the weakness down to US tariffs.

  • The US Dollar has weakened around 8% since January as well.

  • JP Morgan are calling President Trumps tariffs on Canada “economically, politically and geologically illiterate”.

  • Following both the EU and Canada co-ordinating placing tariffs on the US, will this encourage more US Dollar volatility?


Main events for this week:

Mon Mar 17

12:30 USD Retail Sales

Tues Mar 18

10:00 EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment

12:30 USD Housing Starts/Building Permits

13:15 USD Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization

Wed Mar 19

05:00 JPY Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy Rate

05:30 JPY BoJ Press Conference

10:00 EUR Final CPI

18:00 USD Federal Reserve Policy Rate

18:30 USD FOMC Press Conference

Thu Mar 20

00:30 AUD Employment Data

07:00 GBP Employment Data

08:30 CHF Swiss National Bank Policy Rate

12:00 GBP Bank of England (BoE) Policy Rate

12:30 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks/Unemployment Claims

14:00 USD Existing Home Sales

Fri Mar 21

07:00 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing

13:05 USD FOMC Williams Speaks.

About the author

Trevor Charsley

Trevor Charsley

Senior Market Strategist

Trevor has over 25 years' trading and sales experience. He produces regular market and technical analysis as well as help with the structure and management of FX hedging policies. Trevor is often listed among the top "currency forecaster on Bloomberg".