UK: Weekly FX Market Update 16 June 2025
GBP
Sterling had mixed fortunes as it gained against the USD but slipped lower against the Euro.
Weak employment data, combined with a 0.3% decline in monthly GDP, added pressure to the Pound.
UK CPI is released on Wednesday, whilst the Bank of England sets interest rates on Thursday.
EUR
Following the European Central Bank saying that it is close to completing its rate cut cycle, the Euro had a good week.
EURUSD traded at levels not seen since November 2021.
Eurozone CPI may give direction when it is released on Wednesday.
USD
Tariff uncertainty and falling CPI have contributed to USD weakness while escalating tensions in the Middle East have led to a strengthening of the USD.
President Trump says that he may ‘have to force’ an interest rate change.
The Fed sets interest rates on Wednesday. Bloomberg analysts give a 97% chance of a hold, with a 0.25% rate cut not priced in until September 17th.
Main events for this week:
Mon June 16
13:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index
Tue Jun 17
05:00 JPY Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Decision
05:30 JPY BoJ Press Conference
10:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
13:30 USD Retail Sales
14:15 USD Industrial Production
Wed Jun 18
07:00 GBP CPI
10:00 EUR Core CPI
13:30 USD Unemployment Claims
19:00 USD Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision
19:30 USD Fed Chair Powell
Thu Jun 19
02:30 AUD Employment Data
08:30 CHF Swiss National Bank (SNB) Interest Rate Decision
09:00 CHF SNB Press Conference
12:00 GBP Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision/Monetary Policy Summary
Fri Jun 20
07:00 GBP Retail Sales
07:40 JPY BoJ Governor Ueda Speaks
13:30 CAD Retail Sales
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