UK: Weekly FX Market Update 14 July 2025

GBP

• UK GDP disappointed again last week, causing Sterling to weaken.

• All eyes now turn to UK CPI data on Wednesday. Will it stay elevated and support the pound?

• Employment data on Thursday could also give Sterling direction.

EUR

• Media reports suggest that the EU will achieve a worse trade deal than the UK with President Trump. Could this weigh on the Euro?

• Can ZEW economic sentiment continue its positive trajectory and help the single currency?

USD

• As the tariff deadline gets pushed back again, the US dollar has gained support.

• FOMC meeting minutes show the Federal Reserve is still happy to keep interest rates steady. Does this mean that there is little chance of a rate cut for the President in July?

• Will US CPI data show the extent of the impact of the tariffs?

Main events for this week:

Mon July 14

No Top Tier Data

Tue July 15

10:00 EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment

13:30 CAD CPI

14:15 USD FOMC Bowman Speaks

21:00 GBP BoE Governor Bailey Speaks

Wed July 16

07:00 GBP CPI

13:30 USD PPI

14:15 USD Industrial Production

Thu July 17

02:30 AUD Employment Data

07:00 GBP Average Earnings/Claimant Count Change/Unemployment Rate

13:30 USD Retail Sales/Unemployment Claims

Fri July 18

15:00 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment/Inflation Expectations