UK: Weekly FX Market Update 14 April 2025

GBP

• The pound was soft last week before managing to find its footing.

• UK GDP data showed a pre-tariff gain of 0.5% month-over-month.

• Average earnings and CPI data could give Sterling direction this week.

EUR

• The Euro jumped higher last week by around 3.5%.

• Will the ECB cut rates this Thursday as the market expects?

• Or, will the pause in reciprocal tariffs cause a pause in ECB rate cuts?

USD

• Last week was difficult for the FX markets, with the focus on tariffs, US equities, and bond markets, before shifting its focus to FX on Friday.

• Will we see market calmness as tariffs are paused and the market has a holiday-shortened week?

• Is the constant volatility hurting the US Dollar’s safe haven status?

Main events for this week:

Mon Apr 14

03:00 CNY Trade Balance

Tue Apr 15

07:00 GBP Claimant Count Change/Average Earnings

10:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment

13:30 CAD CPI

13:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index

Wed Apr 16

07:00 GBP CPI

10:00 EUR Final CPI

13:30 USD Retail Sales

14:45 CAD Bank of Canada (BoC) Sets Interest Rates

15:30 CAD BoC Press Conference

Thu Apr 17

02:30 AUD Employment Data

13:15 EUR European Central Bank (ECB) Sets Interest Rates

13:30 USD Unemployment Claims

13:45 EUR ECB Press Conference

Fri Apr 18

Good Friday Bank Holiday