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UK: Weekly FX Market Update 11 September

CalendarSeptember 11, 2023
  • As BoE Governor Bailey advises that the peak for UK rates is near, GBPUSD trades at 3-month lows.

  • GBPEUR takes a back seat as well, this is despite Bailey warming of a possible higher inflation reading to come.

  • Will average earnings released on Tuesday push higher? Will GDP on Wednesday expand slowly again?

  • What impact will US CPI, released on Wednesday, have on GBPUSD?

  • What will GBPEUR’s reaction be to the ECB rate decision on Thursday?

  • The EURUSD has been pushed lower by a strong US dollar, and warnings of eurozone stagflation by ECB member Schnabel.

  • ECB members Knot and Kazimir however, have hinted that a September rate hike is still a ‘possibility’.

  • Bloomberg gives a 35% chance of a rate hike from the ECB on Thursday, suggesting that any decision could move the market.

  • If they do hike, will that be a surprise and help lift the Euro?

  • Boston Fed president Collins warns that further Fed tightening ‘may be warranted, depending on the data.’

  • US CPI is released on Wednesday. Market expectations are for a yearly gain of 3.6% and monthly 0.5%.

  • Retail sales are due out on Thursday and consumer sentiment on Friday.

  • After last weeks data drought, will volatility return this week?

Main events for this week:

Mon Sep 11

GBP 09:00 MPC Pill speaks

Tue Sep 12

07:00 GBP Claimant count change/Average earnings index/Unemployment rate

10:00 EUR ZEW Economic sentiment

Wed Sep 13

07:00 GBP GDP/Industrial and manufacturing production/Goods trade balance

13:30 USD CPI

Thu Sep 14

13:15 EUR ECB Interest rate decision

13:30 USD PPI/Retail sales

13:45 EUR ECB press conference

Fri Sep 15

09:30 GBP Consumer inflation expectations

13:30 USD Empire State manufacturing index

14:15 Industrial production

15:00 USD Prelim UoM consumer sentiment


Trevor Charsley

Trevor Charsley

Senior Market Strategist

Trevor has over 25 years' trading and sales experience. He produces regular market and technical analysis as well as help with the structure and management of FX hedging policies. Trevor is often listed among the top "currency forecaster on Bloomberg".