Market Wire: Fed delivers risk management cut, markets hold gains

The Federal Reserve cut rates for a second time this year in a move best characterised as a “risk management” cut, as officials try to prevent nascent signs of a slowdown in labour markets from turning into a full-blown downturn.

In a well-telegraphed and fully-priced decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted along divided 10-to-2 lines to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to between 3.75 and 4.00 percent, with Trump appointee Stephen Miran dissenting from the majority in favour of a bigger move, while Jeffery Schmid elected to stay on hold.

In the statement setting out the decision, the committee acknowledged seeing signs of building price pressures, saying “Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated,” but also noted that “downside risks to employment rose in recent months,” with the “shift in the balance of risks” making it prudent to deliver some precautionary monetary easing.

Unexpectedly, officials did not touch on the difficulties inherent in setting policy without access to high-quality government data, although the subject is likely to feature heavily in the press conference in a few minutes.

In a widely-anticipated technical adjustment, the central bank brought its “quantitative tightening” effort—or reductions in its balance sheet—to an end. “The Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1,” it said, while also cutting the interest rate paid on reserve balances by 25 basis points to 3.90 percent from 4.15 percent, and lowering the reverse repo rate to 3.75 percent from 4 percent previously.

The dollar is trading almost unchanged and Treasury yields are holding earlier gains on the policy-sensitive front end of the curve, while equity markets are treading water as investors look for further clarity in the post-decision press conference. Investors will undoubtedly parse Chair Powell’s comments for evidence that another cut is on the table for December, but he is likely to focus on preserving as much policy optionality as possible by refusing to commit to further moves. Market positioning isn’t skewed as dovishly as it was in September, but in our view, risks to the dollar are slightly tilted to the upside.