Macron Wins French Election, Euro Likely to Open Higher

Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist: karl.schamotta@corpay.com

Voters in France have elected Emmanuel Macron to serve another term as president, rebuffing the hard-right Marine Le Pen for a second time. Preliminary exit polls suggest the incumbent won between 57.3 and 58.2 percent of the votes, against 41.8 to 42.7 percent for Le Pen, and several broadcasters have called the election in the incumbent’s favour.

Data released by the the interior ministry earlier showed 62.3 per cent of registered voters cast ballots, with overall turnout several percentage points below the levels reached during the 2017 run-off election.

A Macron victory was largely priced in, and big moves in the common currency are unlikely to occur when currency markets reopen in a few hours.

But the euro is likely to shed a modest risk discount that emerged after Le Pen tacked to the centre and zeroed in on rising living costs during a hard-fought campaign, successfully narrowing polling margins.

A victory for the long-standing Eurosceptic carried the potential to destabilize Continental governance structures, roll back fiscal integration, and put France on the path toward a withdrawal from the euro area. Her close ties with Vladimir Putin and hostility toward Nato might have led to a fragmentation of the fragile alliance that formed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year.