APAC monthly roadmap with Peter Dragicevich: August Edition

Policy actions and expectations for the future remain a dominant market driver. We are now at a tricker point in the cycle. Rapid fire rate hikes are giving way to policy fine tuning, and the effects of past tightening are starting to come to the surface. With central banks like the US Fed, ECB, and RBA becoming more data dependent further bouts of FX volatility should be anticipated over the next few months as underlying assumptions about the outlook are validated or challenged. For the AUD, we think the RBA’s decision to hold firm once again, coupled with slowing global industrial activity and a negative seasonal bias, suggests things could look a bit worse before they get better later this year on the back of stimulus actions by China.

In our latest APAC Monthly Roadmap video, Peter Dragicevich, our regional Currency Strategist, runs through his thoughts about the underlying themes that could shape FX markets over the next few weeks. The link to the August APAC Monthly Roadmap video is below.

To help navigate the evolving backdrop our FX Event Radar, which picks out the major scheduled events that we believe could be market moving over August, is also attached. Our FX Views In A Nutshell are also included and this summarises our near- and longer-term expectations for the USD, the AUD, the major AUD cross-rates, and USD/SGD. The updated pack also includes our new FX and Market Seasonality Heatmaps.

To access our FX Event Radar and Views In A Nutshell click here.

Watch the August edition of the APAC monthly roadmap with Peter Dragicevich: https://vimeo.com/manage/videos/850453562