UK: Weekly FX Market Update 11 April

GBP

• GBPUSD hit a new high last seen in June 2022 prior to an Easter affected trading week. Can the pound build on last week’s gains?

• Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks twice on Wednesday.

• UK GDP & Industrial Production are released on Thursday – is the UK economy really ready to support a ‘safe-haven’ status for the pound?

EUR

• Eurozone Retail Sales are released on Tuesday.

• Will they point to a continuing hawkish path for the ECB?

• Can the euro be a beneficiary of US dollar weakness? Can EURUSD make another run at 1.1000?

USD

• Last weeks US jobs data pointed to scope for more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

• Februarys NFP number was upgraded and March’s beat expectations - the unemployment rate also unexpectedly fell to 3.5% - bullish news for the US.

• US CPI is released on Wednesday, followed by the FOMC minutes from the last rate decision – can this create USD strength?

• Will US Retail Sales bounce back on Friday, with the US shopper showing resilience in the face of persistent inflation, or will the ‘high street’ show it is suffering under rising prices?

Events for the week ahead:

Tue Apr 11

10:00 EUR Retail Sales

13:30 Onwards. Various FOMC Speakers

Wed Apr 12

13:30 USD CPI

14:00 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

15:00 CAD Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision

16:00 CAD Bank of Canada Press Conference

19:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

20:15 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

Thu Apr 13

02:30 AUD Employment Data

07:00 GBP GDP/Industrial Production/Manufacturing Production/Goods Trade Balance

13:30 USD Producer Price Index

14:00 CAD BoC Gov Macklem Speaks

Fri Apr 14

13:30 USD Retail Sales

14:15 USD Industrial Production

15:00 USD Preliminary Consumer Sentiment