Market Wire: Dollar Jumps on Hotter-Than-Anticipated Core Inflation Print

Consumer price growth accelerated slightly in the United States last month, threatening to derail a more aggressive kickoff to the Federal Reserve’s imminent easing cycle. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index - with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded - rose 0.3 percent in August from the same period last year, and climbed 3.2 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was slightly above the monthly consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release, which had been set at 0.2 percent.

On a headline all-items basis, prices climbed 2.5 percent year-over-year, down from the 2.9 percent pace set in July, and were up 0.2 percent from the previous month. Americans paid less for energy on a month-over-month basis, with falling electricity, gasoline, and natural gas costs helping relieve overall price pressures. The shelter sub-index—long the biggest contributor to overall inflation pressures—climbed 0.5 percent, slightly faster than the 0.4 percent recorded previously, with “owners equivalent rent” - a largely theoretical measure - driving the change.

Today’s report amounts to the last first-tier data release ahead of next week’s Fed meeting, and should reduce the odds on an emergency-esque response, even as it leaves the path clear for a quarter-point move. Evidence of slowing momentum in the US economy has bolstered bets on a more aggressive easing trajectory over the last few months, but there is little to suggest that consumer demand, business investment, or job creation levels have plunged to the degree that would justify cutting rates in plus-sized increments.

Treasury yields are rising through the curve as traders bet on a more gradualist approach from central bankers in the autumn months, and the dollar is rising, reversing losses suffered in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s performance in last night’s presidential debate. Risk-sensitive currencies are retreating across the board.