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Known Unknowns

For American multinationals, the world has rarely felt more uncertain. Since Donald Trump returned to office, trade policy has been dictated more by fiat than institutional process.

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By Cross-Border
May 9, 2025
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Financial Post: Canadian dollar could fall if minority federal government is elected, strategist says

Financial Post: Canadian dollar could fall if minority federal government is elected, strategist says

“The risk of a minority government — which might force the victor to seek an alliance with the nominally separatist Bloc Québécois and generally complicate the business of government

BNN Bloomberg: What are the odds of a recession in 2025?

BNN Bloomberg: What are the odds of a recession in 2025?

Corpay Cross Border chief market strategist Karl Schamotta joined BNN Bloomberg this morning to discuss the trade war, the economy, and monetary policy expectations.

The Trend Really is Your Friend (Sort Of)
Cross-BorderGlobal paymentsRisk management

The Trend Really is Your Friend (Sort Of)

Why can the ‘trend can be your friend’, as well as your absolute nightmare? There are a few reasons why momentum tends to persist across time and asset classes, why it can lead to outperformance, and crucially, how its downsides can reinforce these facts.

MarketWatch: Stocks, Treasurys, dollar tumble in unison on 'increasingly forbidding' growth backdrop

MarketWatch: Stocks, Treasurys, dollar tumble in unison on 'increasingly forbidding' growth backdrop

"Firing an active Fed chair could unleash consequences that make recent market turmoil look tame," Karl Schamotta wrote in a note.

Reuters: Dollar slides to three-year low as Trump attacks threaten Fed's independence

Reuters: Dollar slides to three-year low as Trump attacks threaten Fed's independence

"If the central bank’s dual mandate -- preserving price stability and fostering full employment -- is diluted with a new set of objectives defined by the White House,

Momentum, Efficient Market Hypothesis & Factor Investing
Cross-BorderGlobal paymentsRisk management

Momentum, Efficient Market Hypothesis & Factor Investing

If you’ve been around financial markets, chances are you’ve heard the saying that ‘the trend is your friend.’ While simplistic, this references a statistical anomaly that challenges the efficient markets hypothesis, and which is exhibited time and again.

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